By Vijay Jayaraj

Much of the United Nations’ annual climate gatherings is show. Some of it is unintentional and amusing while other performances are planned and, for the rational observer, more troubling than entertaining.

Take the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai. Some surely smiled at the lapse of United Arab Emirates host mixing up the flags of North Korea and South Korea, prompting the latter to request a correction.

More concerning for some, however, was South Korea’s orchestrated performance in pledging to “bridge the gap between developed and developing economies” in advancing the global decarbonization effort. Seoul will “roll out a new carbon-free campaign” aimed at decarbonizing its economy, according to reports. Washington Post’s Michelle Lee says South Korea’s plan to create a “Carbon Free Alliance, (will be) led by the country’s biggest manufacturing conglomerates and its state-run utility company.”

South Korea may have joined the effort to avert a purported apocalypse, although it is more likely that the flirtation with climate alarmism is merely a facade of green over a long-standing commitment to prosperity.

Miracle on the Han River and Fossil Fuels

South Korea’s economic ascent, often dubbed the “Miracle on the Han River,” has been nothing short of extraordinary. The nation’s transformation from the ashes of the Korean War 70 years ago to the world’s 13th largest economy by nominal gross domestic product is a testament to its resilience and strategic vision.

At the heart of this remarkable journey lies the utilization of energy resources, with fossil fuels playing a pivotal role. South Korea has perhaps one of the most carbon-intensive energy sectors among top developed economies. It is heavily reliant on oil imports to meet primary energy demands.

South Korea’s industrialization, particularly in the latter half of the 20th century, demanded an unprecedented surge in energy consumption. Oil emerged as a versatile and efficient energy source, powering the nation’s burgeoning manufacturing sector. From petrochemicals to steel production, oil has been the lifeblood of South Korea’s industrial engine, fuelling economic growth and job creation.

Despite experiencing a decrease during the 2020 COVID lockdowns, the demand for oil is now rebounding. In 2022, consumption increased to 2.6 million barrels per day from 2.57 million in 2021. Most of this is met by imports.

Last year, South Korea’s energy-intensive economy relied on oil for 43% of primary energy demand. Coal and gas accounted for an additional 40%, while nuclear power comprised approximately 12%. On the other hand, the combined contribution of solar and wind energy represented less than 3% of total energy consumption.

Coal and gas are particularly crucial for South Korea’s heavy industries and their need for a steady stream of electricity, which cannot be fulfilled by intermittent sources such as wind and solar power.

More than 60% of South Korea’s electricity generation comes from plants fueled by coal and gas. Nuclear provides another 30%, and so-called renewables less than 10%.

Fossil Fuels Not Going Away

South Korea has regulatory safeguards in place to preserve its industries’ electricity supply. The Electricity Utility Act, for example, will allow the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy to “issue supply orders for electricity utilities to directly supply specific consumers.”

The department also creates a biannual Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand. The most recent plan’s primary objective is to guarantee stability in the power sector. It will also aim to produce a reserve margin of 22 percent over peak demand.

Likewise, the country is taking measures to ensure there is no disruption to oil supply. Earlier this year, the country signed special agreements with Abu Dhabi’s state-owned Adnoc and Saudi Arabia’s Aramco to store reserve stockpiles of oil in Yeosu and Ulsan storage facilities, respectively.

These are clear indicators that Seoul prioritizes energy security, which is guaranteed to diminish if reliance on faddish wind and solar sources is increased significantly. In fact, the current administration has reduced the renewable installation targets for 2030, signaling a coolness toward decarbonization.

The symbiotic relationship between fossil fuels and economic growth, though evolving, continues to be a linchpin in the nation’s journey towards sustained prosperity. South Korea should not succumb to ill-advised calls for decarbonization lest it drifts into its northern neighbor’s societal darkness.

This commentary was first published at The Digital Times Seoul Korea on December 17, 2023.

Translation and Manuscript Organization by Dr. Seok Park, Professor of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ewha Womans University.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, U.K.