By Vijay Jayaraj

For decades, we’ve been told that island nations are on the brink of disappearing beneath the waves, their inhabitants destined to be victims of climate change’s catastrophic effects. Yet, developmental activity in some of these countries tell a different story.

In recent years, the Maldives have embarked on an ambitious program of developing more than a dozen new airports, a move that seems to fly in the face of dire predictions about the country’s future.

This contrast between an apocalyptic narrative and a seemingly optimistic reality raises important questions about the accuracy of doomsayers’ predictions and the actual nature of island geomorphology – the rise and fall of terrestrial features.

Maldives’ Infrastructure Boom Belie False Fears

An archipelago of 1,192 coral islands grouped into 26 atolls, the Maldives have been investing heavily in its aviation infrastructure. A 1.3 million passenger terminal is a part of the recent upgrades at Hanimadhoo International Airport, just one of the 18 airports in the country.

Another major revamp is happening at the Velana International Airport. The new expansion will meet the growing demands of tourism and trade. It is expected to accommodate 25 million passengers per year, which is almost six times the volume in 2022.

The new cargo terminal at Velana is projected to handle 100,000 metric tons by 2025 and 300,000 metric tons by 2050. The airport will also have a new runway, a seaplane terminal and storage capacity for 100 million liters of fuel.

This year, Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu announced a decree to construct additional airports across nine different islands. The decree also signaled the development of a second airport in Laamu Atoll and new airports at GA Villingili and GDh Thinadhoo.

In all, forecasts show the operation of a dozen new airports within the next 10 years, in addition to the existing 18 airports. These investments represent a significant commitment to long-term infrastructure development.

They also require substantial modifications to the islands, including land reclamation and coastal engineering works. Such projects would be difficult to justify if Maldivian leadership truly believed the nation was on the verge of inundation.

Expansion and Sinking: Island Science

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has consistently identified small island states as being at high risk from sea-level rise. The IPCC’s reports are regarded as the bible for national policymakers across the globe.

However, the reality on the ground – and in the water – is more complex than these dire predictions suggest. Islands, particularly coral atolls like those that make up the Maldives, are dynamic systems that respond to environmental changes in complex ways.

They’re not static landmasses but are constantly changing shape and size in response to waves, currents and the deposition of sediments. This dynamic nature means that islands can, under certain circumstances, grow.

A scientific study published in 2020 examined shoreline changes due to land reclamation and coastal development in 607 islands across 23 atolls in the Maldives. They found that between 2004-2006 and 2014-2016, 59% of islands remained stable, 24% expanded, and less than 17% contracted.

Similarly, there are cases of natural increases in landmass. A landmark study published in the journal Nature Communications in 2018 examined changes in 101 islands of the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu over a period of 40 years. Despite sea-level rise, the total land area of the islands had increased by nearly 3%. On an individual basis, 74% of the islands had grown, while only 14% had shrunk.

The rate of increase in sea level of 1.5 millimeters per year during 1958-2014 is nowhere near being dangerous. This is nothing compared to the annual 47-millimeter rise that occurred 8,200 years ago as Earth warmed following the last glaciation that covered many parts of the Northern Hemisphere with ice thousands of feet thick.

During the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago, worldwide sea level was higher than it is currently and life thrived, nonetheless.

The Maldives’ remarkable investments in infrastructure and the scientific evidence of island geomorphology suggest that the only thing sinking is the fearmongering stories of nations disappearing because of climate change.

This commentary was first published at RVIVR on September 6, 2024.

Vijay Jayaraj is a Research and Science Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University and, both in the U.K., and a bachelor’s in engineering from Anna University, India.