This Letter to the Editor, written by CO2 Coalition Member Euan Mearns, was published in The Press and Journal, December 28, 2023:

Sir, The James Hutton Institute (JHI) published an editorial in the P&J on December 19^th that made many extraordinary claims about Scotland’s climate changing faster than expected.

“We are now in the midst of a climate breakdown – our ecosystems that regulate the climate and enable food production are degrading and are at risk of collapse”.

In truth, global food production is at an all-time high based largely on ammonium nitrate fertilizer (made from natural gas) and the CO₂ fertilisation effect. Higher atmospheric CO₂ promotes more plant growth. In the past, atmospheric CO₂ has been much higher, for example about 2000 ppm during the Jurassic (5 times higher than today), and the planet and dinosaurs flourished.

“Researchers also warned of an increase in water scarcity in the near future stating it could threaten agriculture, forestry and animal habitats…”

And

“We are making Scotland more resilient to flooding…”

I have no problem with investment in flood defences, but are Lochs Tay, Rannoch, Ness, Lomond and Morar really on the verge of drying up? Scotland is one of the wettest countries in Europe.

“Researchers say that in certain parts of Scotland temperatures have risen by 2.5^oC in February – with the average of 16.9^oC in the period from 1960-89 increasing to 19.4^oC during the three decades from 1990-2019.”

Mean February temperatures in Scotland are of the order 2 to 4^oC and have barely changed since 1885. Mean July temperatures in Scotland are of the order 12 to 15^oC. JHI need to explain where their data come from since official Met Office data do not support their claims.

I have studied numerous Met Office graphs of climate data for Scotland – mean seasonal and annual temperatures 1885 to 2023 and rainfall 1835 to 2023. The graphs show a large amount of variation from one year to the next. There are gradual trends of increasing annual temperature and rainfall that began mid 19^th century, as the UK emerged from the Little Ice Age and continue to this day. The upward trends begin well before the surge in fossil fuel emissions, that occurred post WWII. I see no evidence from these graphs to support any of claims made by JHI.

The JHI research was funded by the Scottish Government. What chance was there that JHI would conclude that there was nothing to worry about? Instead, we get a new dose of groundless scaremongering.

Dr Euan Mearns, Aberdeen