Radiative transport of energy in the atmosphere can be easily calculated using fundamental physics. These calculations confirm the observations that greenhouse gases play a modest role in climate warming. The important conclusion from theory and measurements is that there is no man-made climate crisis.

However, climate models – constructed by governmental organizations – predict a climate catastrophe and greenhouse gas CO₂ gets the blame, despite the fact that on water planet Earth H₂O is the most important greenhouse gas.

The model-based fear-inspiring narrative is that the human contribution to CO₂-emissions poses a fundamental threat to the survival of humanity. Therefore, all fossil fuels must be banned. Fortunately, this doom story is not consistent with the facts.

Establishing cause and effect is the most difficult subject in science (correlation is different from causation!). This certainly applies to the behavior of our climate. After all, the Earth’s climate is an extremely complex system, in which complicated processes take place in a four-dimensional space: three spatial coordinates (x,y,z) and one time coordinate (t). We know little about that yet. That is why Earth’s climate behavior is very difficult to capture in models. Experience shows that climate science should not start with complex models, but with reliable observations. The limitations of current climate models, partly due to numerous assumptions and numerical limitations, are such that they do not yet form a serious basis for mitigating climate policy. In particular, the premise that the human contribution to CO₂ production would be the recipe for a future climate disaster is not supported by observations. Consciously ignoring the saturation effect in the warming caused by the greenhouse gas CO₂ plays an important role in this. In addition, the many assumptions on the very complex role of clouds are just as important. Clearly, clouds are the Achilles heel of climate science.

Historical awareness is indispensable in climate research. The results of geological science are a veritable treasure trove of data on the relationship, or lack thereof, between the CO₂ content of the atmosphere and temperature. The geological archive tells us that there is no correlation, and therefore no causal link, between CO₂ and temperature. Studies of ice cores show that warming precedes an increase in atmospheric CO₂ content. The recent past points out that the natural variability of temperature is considerably greater than human influence on it.

In the wake of the unreliable predictions of climate models, energy supply on a global scale has become a topic of much heated debate. Due to the dubious conclusions of climate models about the role of CO₂, fossil fuels have been condemned. The Net Zero approach has become, at least in the West, the political Holy Grail. The reliability of demand-driven fossil energy is sacrificed to supply-driven illusions. The West is apparently prepared to risk prosperity for this. The rest of the world watches in amazement.

Read the full report by Kees de Lange and Guus Berkhout here:

We Can Still Avoid the Net Zero Trap