August 12, 2024

Jaquelin Cochran, PhD
Director, Grid Planning and Analysis Center
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Re: CO₂ Coalition Challenges Climate Basis for LADWP LA100

Dear Dr. Cochran:

Good news: There is NO climate crisis in California.

This letter regards the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100), which is a joint collaboration between the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). LA100 appears to have been initiated on March 2, 2016, through a Principal Motion prepared by the Los Angeles City Council Energy and Environment Committee. The Principal Motion begins with these claims: “Climate change is the most significant issue facing the global environment today. There is a broad, overwhelming consensus among scientists that the climate is changing as a direct result of human activity that produces greenhouse gases.”

We challenge the validity of the Principal Motion with strong evidence that there is NO climate crisis in California. This evidence has been compiled by the CO₂ Coalition, a nonprofit organization with the goal of determining and propagating the facts regarding carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the climate. The key findings provided below stand in contrast to the need to “combat climate change,” which appears to be the primary justification for LA100. More details, including the scientific data, can be found in the attached letter, which was originally sent to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) on March 22, 2024, and is available online.

• Modest warming of California is beneficial and not a cause for concern: Globally, more people have died from the cold than from the heat since 2000.
• Increase in agricultural production: The combination of lengthened growing seasons (from warming) and increased CO₂ concentrations has contributed to this increase.
• CO₂ is essential: Plants need CO₂, sunlight, water, and nutrients from the soil to produce food and oxygen, both of which are essential for human and animal lives.
• CO₂ is beneficial: Exposing plants to higher concentrations of CO₂ increases their growth, food production, and drought-resistance; and greens the Earth.
• California is in no danger of unusual drought: The annual precipitation in California has fluctuated greatly over the last 150 years, with only a slight decrease.
• Ski resorts are experiencing more snow: Most (21 of 22) ski resorts in California had increasing snowfall from 2012 to 2023.
• California is in no danger of drowning: North Spit, CA, has the highest rate of sea level rise of 0.005 meter/year, or 1.64 feet in 100 years, which is easily mitigated.
• Less natural disasters over the years: Significantly reduced number of wildfires and acres burned were reported in the United States and globally; California has infrequent tornadoes, no landfalling hurricane from 1851 to 2023, and no tropical depression from 1950 to 2023; and tropical storms are rare in California, with the last two reported in 2023 and 1997.
• Air quality in California keeps getting better: The concentrations of major pollutants have decreased over the years.

Based on the data: There is NO climate crisis in California and CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth.

NREL and the LADWP also cited “health and economic benefits” as motivations for implementing the proposals of LA100.

The claimed health benefits include “the overall changes to air quality from LA100 scenarios could provide hundreds of millions of dollars—and up to nearly $1.5 billion—in monetized benefits in the year 2045.” These claims have been strongly disputed by the CO₂ Coalition, where based on scientific evidence, the air quality in California is already very good, which means that there are little or no health benefits that can be directly attributed to further improvements in air quality. Based on the studies conducted by the CO₂ Coalition:

• The current air pollution levels in California are among the lowest in the entire world (Figure 1). These levels are below the threshold of established human health effects.

Figure 1: Worldwide level of air pollution due to particulate matter (PM_2.5)

• Published epidemiologic evidence from six California cohorts finds that the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM₅) is NOT related to total mortality. These cohorts are: Adventist Health Study, California ACS Cancer Prevention Study I, Medicare Cohort Air Pollution Study, California ACS Cancer Prevention Study II, California Teachers Study, and California NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.
• The 2019 age-adjusted total death rates in California are among the lowest in the United States. Relative to the rate in the United States in 2019 (7.15 deaths per 1000), the rate is 16% lower in California, 20% lower in Los Angeles County, and 30% lower among Los Angeles County Hispanics.
• Major risk factors for coronary heart disease are blood pressure, blood cholesterol, tobacco smoking, diabetes, family history of heart disease, obesity, age, gender, and stress. Air pollution is NOT an established factor.
• The causes of asthma are unknown. Factors known to trigger asthmatic symptoms are dust mites, animal dander, pollen, molds, cigarette smoke, certain chemicals, cold air, and sinusitis. Air pollution is NOT an established factor.

As for the claimed economic benefits of transitioning to alternative energy systems (usually referred as “renewable”), Figure 2 shows the data from the California Energy Commission regarding the amount of electricity, in gigawatt hours (GWh), generated by each fuel in California. The data indicate that beginning in about 2010, the reliance of California on solar photovoltaic (PV) saw a major increase. At the same time, California decreased its reliance on nuclear energy and natural gas beginning in 2012 and 2016, respectively.

Figure 2: Amount of electricity in California generated by each fuel

The cost of electricity in the Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim area in California, obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is shown in Figure 3. Figure 3 indicates that compared to other time periods, the electricity price in Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim took a significant leap from the late 2010s to 2024. The fact that the electricity price began soaring shortly after California decreased the use of natural gas and increased the use of solar PVs suggest that, rather than reducing the price of electricity, placing more reliance on alternative energy systems, such as solar energy, does the opposite.

Figure 3: Price of electricity in the Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim area in California

In terms of the reliability of alternative energy systems, Pages 21–23 of the attached testimony discusses the electricity grid in Texas, where this testimony is available online and was submitted for the Montana Public Service Commission public hearing on the petition, docket number 2024.03.028. When Winter Storm Uri arrived in Texas in February 2021, wind and solar energy systems, which are included among alternative energy systems, failed, and natural gas power plants had to significantly increase their power outputs to meet the electricity needs of the customers. Similarly, in Summer 2023, there were time intervals when wind and solar energy systems failed to produce enough power to meet the electricity demands of the customers, once again necessitating natural gas power plants to increase their power outputs. These experiences suggest that wind and solar energy systems are not reliable.

Based on the data: Placing more reliance on alternative energy systems, such as wind and solar energy systems, increases the price of electricity, while reducing grid reliability.

In conclusion: Given that there is NO climate crisis in California, CO₂ is essential for all life on Earth, California has clean, healthy air, and alternative energy systems (wind and solar) are expensive and unreliable, the CO₂ Coalition recommends against implementing the proposals of LA100.

If you need additional details, the CO₂ Coalition will be happy to respond to any inquiries you may have, and the members of the CO₂ Coalition will be happy to meet with you for further discussions.

Sincerely,

Gregory Wrightstone
Executive Director
The CO₂ Coalition