Comment on the 5^th National Climate Assessment 3d Order Draft

William Happer,

Professor of Physics, Emeritus, Princeton University

Richard Lindzen,

Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science Emeritus

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

CO2 Coalition

Gregory Wrightstone, Executive Director

Non-profit 501(c)(3) educational foundation

January 27, 2023

The 5^th National Climate Assessment 3^rd Order Draft is Fatally Flawed Science Because it Omits Contradictory Data, Relies on Models that Do Not Work and IPCC Government Opinions, Omits the Extraordinary Social Benefits of Fossil fuels and CO_2,  and Omits the Disastrous Consequences of Reducing Fossil Fuels and CO₂ Emissions to “Net Zero.”  

SUMMARY

We (Happer and Lindzen) are career physicists who have specialized in radiation physics and dynamic heat transfer for decades. These are processes integral to atmospheric climate science.

Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the 5^th National Climate Assessment 3^rd Order Draft (NCA5) by 13 Federal agencies that comprise the U.S. Global Climate Research Program (USGCRP). Respectfully, in our scientific opinion, NCA5 is fatally flawed science for the following scientific reasons, separately and together:

1. It omits data that contradicts its conclusions on extreme weather
2. It relies on models that do not work, which are never relied on in science
3. It relies on IPCC findings, which are government opinions, not science and are never relied on in science
4. It omits the extraordinary social benefits of CO₂ and fossil fuels
5. It omits the disastrous consequences of reducing fossil fuels and CO₂ emissions to “Net Zero”
6. There is no risk of catastrophic global warming caused by fossil fuels and CO₂

As to the disastrous consequences of eliminating fossil fuels, it “is estimated that nitrogen fertilizer [derived from fossil fuels] now supports approximately half of the global population.”[1]  As one of us (Happer) has made clear, without the “use of inorganic fertilizers” derived from fossil fuels, the world “will not achieve the food supply needed to support 8.5 to 10 billion people.”[2]

The recent experience in Sri Lanka provides a red alert.  “The world has just witnessed the collapse of the once bountiful agricultural sector of Sri Lanka as a result of government restrictions on mineral fertilizer.”[3] The government of Sri Lanka banned the use of fossil fuel-derived nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides, with disastrous consequences on food supply there. If similarly misguided decisions are made eliminating fossil fuels and thus nitrogen fertilizer, there will be a starvation crisis worldwide.

It is critical to repeat. Eliminating fossil fuel-derived nitrogen fertilizer will create a worldwide starvation crisis. And scientifically there is no risk of catastrophic global warming caused by fossil fuels and CO_2. (See parts III.E&F for details).

Scientific details follow.

Happer Lindzen CO2C NCA5 2023 01 27 (2)