Chill Out: AC Refrigerants Cause Negligible Warming
Frits Byron Soepyan, Ph.D.
November 12, 2025
Abstract
The refrigerant R-410A, which has been used in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems since 2010, is in the process of being phased out due to the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act of 2020 and the regulation passed by the Biden Administration’s United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The purported warming caused by the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that comprise the refrigerant R-410A was cited as the reason behind this move. As a result, the refrigerant R-410A was to be replaced with more “environmentally friendly,” but at the same time, more flammable and more expensive, alternatives.
To determine if such a move is necessary, the concentration and radiative forcing of the above-mentioned HFCs were used to predict the temperature rise caused by the continued emission of the current refrigerant. Based on our estimates, the continued emission of R-410A into the atmosphere would cause a temperature increase of about 0.044 °C in 100 years. Such a rise in temperature is negligible and cannot be measured or felt.
Moreover, the proposed replacements for the refrigerant R-410A also contain greenhouse gases with lower, but still very high global warming potential. These replacement refrigerants are expected to cause a warming of about 0.013 °C in 100 years. This means that the net warming averted by the switch is an incredibly small 0.03 °C in 100 years.
Therefore, curbing the emissions of refrigerants into the atmosphere is unnecessary and would have minimal effect on the climate, while at the same time, would increase the cost and fire risk for consumers. Given this conclusion, the selection of refrigerants for air conditioning systems should be based on the safety and the needs of the consumers, rather than on a purported environmental benefit.
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