“Claudia Tebaldi and Reto Knutti concluded in 2007 that the entire field of probabilistic climate projection, which often relies on combining multiple climate models, had no verifiable relation to the actual climate, and thus no predictive value. Absent ‘new knowledge about the [climate] processes and a substantial increase in computational resources,’ adding new climate models won’t help: ‘our uncertainty should not continue to decrease when the number of models increases’.”

Originally published here by the National Association of Scholars (NAS) on 9 April 2018.