Simulating optimal development of clean coal-fired power generation for collaborative reduction of air pollutant and CO2 emissions
Over 60% of electricity was produced by coal-fired power plants in China. Apart from accelerating penetration of non-fossil power, clean coal-fired power generation (CCFPG) needs to be largely impelled. The economic and environmental impacts of expanded development of CCFPG industry within the socioeconomic system remain unclear. We develop an integrated input-output model to explore an optimal combination of CCFPG technologies subject to emission constraints and maximization of gross regional production. The trends in CCFPG industries’ outputs and power generation, as well as reductions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and CO2 emissions in Jilin Province during 2021-2030 are simulated in seven scenarios. We found that the timing and scale of development of CCFPG technologies are mainly determined by costs, joint-removal efficiencies, and levels of emission constraints. When CO2 emission constraint gets stricter, the production of integrated gasification combined cycle with carbon capture and storage will increase for larger CO2 emission reduction. Industrialization of CCFPG technologies calls for additional investment and subsidies, which would induce reduced investment for some sectors and negative impact on the economy. The quantified economic and environmental impacts of introducing CCFPG technologies are expected to provide government with references for emission mitigation of coal-fired power generation industries.
This article appeared on the Sustainable Production and Consumption website at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352550921002086]]>