Scientists Cite Uncertainty, Error, Model Deficiencies To Affirm A Non-Detectable Human Climate Influence
Observational uncertainty, errors, biases, and estimation discrepancies in longwave radiation may be 100 times larger than the entire accumulated influence of CO2 increases over 10 years. This effectively rules out clear detection of a potential human influence on climate.The anthropogenic global warming (AGW) hypothesis rides on the fundamental assumption that perturbations in the Earth’s energy budget – driven by changes in downward longwave radiation from CO2 — are what cause climate change. According to one of the most frequently referenced papers advancing the position that CO2 concentration changes (and downward longwave radiation perturbations) drive surface temperature changes, Feldman et al. (2015) concluded there was a modest 0.2 W/m² forcing associated with CO2 rising by 22 ppm per decade.
Image Source: Kim and Lee, 20192. Kato et al., 2018 Downward longwave radiation (DLR) responds to variability in water vapor and cloud. (CO2 isn’t mentioned in the paper as a factor influencing DLR.) CO2 rose by 20 ppm during 2005-2014, but total DLR was negative (-0.2 W/m²) during this decade, insinuating rising CO2 had no net warming climate impact. Uncertainty in DLR is 6 W/m² per year, whereas CO2 forcing is just 0.02 W/m² per year – 300 times smaller.
Image Source: Kato et al., 20183. Wild et al., 2019 Observations vs. model bias/discrepancy ranges in downward longwave radiation span between 22 W/m² to 26 W/m², which is 120 times larger than CO2’s total influence over 10 years.
Image Source: Wild et al., 2019
4. Stephens et al., 2019 “Gross assumptions” must be made about cloud physics due to a lack of observations. Sources of error in models yield an uncertainty of ~80%. Models of cloud processes are 3-5 times discrepant from observations.
Image Source: Stephens et al., 2019
5. Frank, 2019 “An AGW signal … will never emerge from climate noise.”
Cloud forcing “error is ±114 times larger than the annual average increase in GHG [greenhouse gas] forcing.”
“A temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot … be evidenced in climate observables.”