10.24.2018
2018 U.S. tornadoes on track to be lowest ever – NOAA’s temperature trends blow a hole in “climate correlation”
By Anthony Watts
While claims of increased severe weather due to “climate change” aka “global warming” are thrown about by the media, with recent claims that more and more tornadoes are shifting east in the U.S., the fact of the matter is that the trend for strong tornadoes is decidedly down, according to data from NOAA. The US is on track to have the lowest annual tornado count in 65 years.
h/t to Mark J. Perry, AEI for the graph.
We recently covered the lack of tornadoes in 2018 from data supplied by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, but the above graph clearly illustrates the downward trend. from 1954 to 1985, there was an average of 55.9 F3 strength or greater tornadoes in the USA per year, and in the period from 1985 to present, that number dwindled to 33.8 F3 strength of greater tornadoes per year. The year isn’t over yet, but now that we are out of the main period of tornado activity, it’s a likely bet that 2018 will come in the lowest ever.
For those not familiar, here is the original Fujita tornado strength scale, which is accepted as a world-wide metric by NOAA and the WMO:
Since “global warming” is said to be the cause of the perception of increased violent weather, taking a look at temperature for the USA during the same period should yield a correlation.
This comparison graph I prepared, showing USA temperatures from 1954 to 2018, illustrates the correlation between tornadoes and temperature is exactly opposite of what we are being told by climate advocates.
See below for this comparison graph I made, showing USA temperatures from 1954 to 2018, illustrates the correlation is exactly opposite of what we are being told by climate advocates. Again the source of the data is NOAA, using their “climate at a glance” plotter.I’ve shaded the 1954 to 1985 period of temperature to match the shaded 1954 to 1985 period in the tornado count graph,but otherwise both graphs are original:
Source of temperature plot (and data) is here.
Source of Tornado data is here
Breaking down the two periods, the NOAA “climate at a glance” plotter provides the 1954 to 1985 trend, when there were the most violent F3 or greater tornado counts in the USA:
Source of plot (and data) is here.
Shockingly, from 1954 to 1985, when violent F3 or greater tornadoes were most common in the U.S., there was a cooling trend of -0.13°F per decade.
But let’s look at the 1985 to 2017 (2018 is not complete yet) trend, when there were fewer violent F3 or greater tornadoes:
Source of plot (and data) is here.
In the 1985 to 2017 period, there was a warming trend of +0.48°F per decade.
Clearly, warmer climatic periods yield fewer violent F3 or greater tornadoes in the United States. And that blows a hole in any warming correlation that advocates like to claim for increasing numbers of severe tornadoes.
Oh, and remember the story about tornado paths shifting east?
This map illustrates that in the larger scheme of things, even if the claim holds true, most tornadoes in the USA are in the east anyway, and the difference really isn’t that significant when you look at where the majority of U.S. tornadoes occur:
Source: NASA Earth Observatory
This article appeared on the WattsUpWithThat? website at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/24/2018-u-s-tornadoes-on-track-to-be-lowest-ever-noaas-temperature-trends-blow-a-hole-in-climate-correlation/
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h/t to Mark J. Perry, AEI for the graph.
We recently covered the lack of tornadoes in 2018 from data supplied by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, but the above graph clearly illustrates the downward trend. from 1954 to 1985, there was an average of 55.9 F3 strength or greater tornadoes in the USA per year, and in the period from 1985 to present, that number dwindled to 33.8 F3 strength of greater tornadoes per year. The year isn’t over yet, but now that we are out of the main period of tornado activity, it’s a likely bet that 2018 will come in the lowest ever.
For those not familiar, here is the original Fujita tornado strength scale, which is accepted as a world-wide metric by NOAA and the WMO:
Since “global warming” is said to be the cause of the perception of increased violent weather, taking a look at temperature for the USA during the same period should yield a correlation.
This comparison graph I prepared, showing USA temperatures from 1954 to 2018, illustrates the correlation between tornadoes and temperature is exactly opposite of what we are being told by climate advocates.
See below for this comparison graph I made, showing USA temperatures from 1954 to 2018, illustrates the correlation is exactly opposite of what we are being told by climate advocates. Again the source of the data is NOAA, using their “climate at a glance” plotter.I’ve shaded the 1954 to 1985 period of temperature to match the shaded 1954 to 1985 period in the tornado count graph,but otherwise both graphs are original:
Source of temperature plot (and data) is here.
Source of Tornado data is here
Breaking down the two periods, the NOAA “climate at a glance” plotter provides the 1954 to 1985 trend, when there were the most violent F3 or greater tornado counts in the USA:
Source of plot (and data) is here.
Shockingly, from 1954 to 1985, when violent F3 or greater tornadoes were most common in the U.S., there was a cooling trend of -0.13°F per decade.
But let’s look at the 1985 to 2017 (2018 is not complete yet) trend, when there were fewer violent F3 or greater tornadoes:
Source of plot (and data) is here.
In the 1985 to 2017 period, there was a warming trend of +0.48°F per decade.
Clearly, warmer climatic periods yield fewer violent F3 or greater tornadoes in the United States. And that blows a hole in any warming correlation that advocates like to claim for increasing numbers of severe tornadoes.
Oh, and remember the story about tornado paths shifting east?
This map illustrates that in the larger scheme of things, even if the claim holds true, most tornadoes in the USA are in the east anyway, and the difference really isn’t that significant when you look at where the majority of U.S. tornadoes occur:
Source: NASA Earth Observatory
This article appeared on the WattsUpWithThat? website at https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/24/2018-u-s-tornadoes-on-track-to-be-lowest-ever-noaas-temperature-trends-blow-a-hole-in-climate-correlation/