Observations Concerning the Newest IPCC Report

By Patrick J. Michaels

The case made for catastrophic climate change in the new “Sixth Assessment Report” by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6; IPCC) is extremely weak, and would wither in cross-examination over the following points:

● The Sixth Assessment Report [AR6] from UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is internally inconsistent about our future. It gives several scenarios for future emissions, including the largely discredited, highest emissions one (popularly called RCP 8.5). In fact, the report concedes “the likelihood of high emissions scenarios such as RCP 8.5…is considered low.”

● While AR6 makes no statement about the relative probability of any of the scenarios it considered, and mentions consequences from RCP 8.5 far more than any other scenario.

● AR6 makes glib assertions about important aspects of climate change—such as increasing agricultural drought or changes in tropical cyclones—for which there is little robust evidence. For example, global food productivity continues the exponential increase that was established decades ago, while there is no systematic trend in long-term tropical cyclone energy and activity.

● As it has in each of its summary reports, AR6 makes the cardinal error of aggregating families of models (in this case CMIP-6) rather than using those that are more representative of reality. Using the more representative models is the “best scientific practice” in forecasting that the IPCC refuses to abide by. This practice is used virtually every day in composing the secular weather forecast. What’s good for 120 hours should be good for 120 years.

●Although the numbers in AR6 are a bit different, there’s been no real or significant change in the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity after 50 years of study and countless billions in model funding.

●AR6 completely minimizes the profound greening of the terrestrial surface that is occurring because of increasing carbon dioxide and the climate change induced by that increase. Over 90% of the greening is the direct result of human activity.

Patrick J. Michaels is a senior fellow with the CO2 Coalition and the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Previously, he was a research professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia for more than 30 years, and Virginia State Climatologist for more than 25 years.